Day 122

Poker article of the day ...
Pot Odds and Implied Pot Odds - by John Porter

In a previous article, I discussed odds and probabilities in general terms. Now, it is time to start learning to use odds to our advantage.

Both pot odds, and implied pot odds are used when you believe that you do not currently have the best hand, but you think that you can improve to the best hand. They are 1 part of the answer when you ask the question “should I bet, call, raise or fold?”.

Pot Odds

The term “Pot odds” refers to the odds you are currently getting from the pot. For instance, if there is currently $5 in the pot, and it will cost you $1 to stay in, you are getting 5:1 odds for your $1 call. Another way of stating this is that the pot is laying you 5:1.

There are several important concepts to understand about pot odds. First, once you have put money into the pot, by making, or calling a bet, that money belongs to the pot. It is irrelevant where the money in the pot came from. There are only two things that are important. The size of the pot, and the odds you are getting from the pot.

Next, understand that pot odds only consider the money that is currently in the pot. The money in the pot is made up of the money from bets on previous betting rounds, and bets on the current betting round. For instance, before the flop, 3 players, including you, and the small blind call, and the big blind checks, putting $5 total in the pot. After the flop, the small blind bets $1, the big blind and the next player each call. Now, it is your turn to decide. There is $5 in the pot from before the flop, a $1 bet from the small blind, a $1 call from the big blind and a $1 call from the next player. There is a total of $8 in the pot, and it will cost you $1 to call, so you are getting 8:1.

In the same example, assume that instead of calling, the player before you raises $1. There would now be $9 in the pot. However, because of the raise it will cost you $2 to call instead of $1. Your pot odds in this case are 9:2 or 4.5:1.

Pot odds, and implied odds for that matter, are usually calculated, and discussed in terms of small bets and big bets instead of dollars. This makes it easier to generalize the calculations. It does not matter if you are playing in a $.05/$.10 game or a $5/$10 game. The bets before the flop, and on the flop, are small bets, while the bets on the turn and river are big bets. If 3 people have called before the flop, there are 3 small bets in the pot. Note that the small blind is typically a portion of a small bet, such as 1⁄2 a small bet. If the small blind folds, there will therefore be some fractional number of bets in the pot, such as 4.5 small bets for instance.

In order to use pot odds, you are trying to make the decision we talked about with the coin flip example. Is it a good bet, or a bad bet? If it is a good bet for us, we should take it. If it is a bad bet, we should fold. For instance, if we think that the chance of improving to the best hand is 4:1, and the pot odds we are getting are 5:1, then it is a good bet and we should call a bet. However, if the numbers are changed so that you think your odds of improving to the best hand are 5:1, and the odds you are getting from the pot are 4:1, then the bet is a bad bet and we should fold.

A discussion of how to calculate your odds of improving to the best hand can be found in the article ‘Counting and Using Outs in Hold’em’.

Implied Pot Odds

Where pot odds only consider the money that is currently in the pot, implied pot odds takes into account future bets that may be gained if your hand does improve to the best hand.

Let’s take an example to make this clear. Before the flop, another player calls, you call, the small blind calls and the big blind checks, putting 4 small bets in the pot. After the flop, the first player bets, bringing the pot to 5 small bets, and giving you pot odds of 5:1. You calculate that your odds of improving to what will probably be the best hand are 6:1. Should you call?

Based on pot odds, the answer would be no. The odds of you improving are worse than the odds you are getting from the pot, so you should fold.

But, now you need to consider your implied odds.

Based on the play of the other players you may determine that 1 of the remaining players will also call, and that you will collect 2 big bets on the turn and 2 more on the river if you make your hand. That adds 1 more small bet, and 4 big bets, which is 8 small bets, giving you implied odds of 14:1 if you are correct. In this case, the implied odds turn what seemed like a clear fold into a call.

You must be careful in using implied odds however. Implied odds do not give you a license to call every bet on the flop. There are several factors that you must consider before you call based on implied odds.

First, you need to be realistic about how many bets the other players will call. If you are relying on 2 or 3 players to stay in the pot, and only 1 other player does stay, your implied odds are greatly reduced. Related to this, you can’t count on several players calling multiple raises. Often, a raise will knock most players out, and again, your implied odds are reduced.

Don’t over estimate the odds that can be overcome by implied odds. If you are a 23:1 dog to improve to the best hand, it is very unlikely that you will ever have the implied odds to call. You must consider the chances that you will improve to the hand you are looking for, and still lose. This goes along with reading the board. For instance, if you are trying to improve to top pair and there are 2 cards to a flush, or 2 cards to a straight on board you can improve and still lose. The more chance there is that someone else may improve to a better hand than yours, the better the odds must be in order to call.

If there are players still to act after you, one of them could raise. This would reduce your implied odds, and as well indicate that they already have a strong hand. Worse yet, the original bettor could re-raise, further reducing your implied odds and forcing you to fold, giving up the bet you already put in. When there are players left to act after you do, you once again need better odds in order to call.

If there is a chance that you may make your hand, and end up splitting the pot with 1 or more players, your implied odds are cut in half, or worse. This typically happens when you are trying to make a straight using only 1 of your cards.

So, implied pot odds can be an important tool in analyzing your choices, but you can’t just assume that the bets will be there to cover your odds, and that you will always win. It requires a bit of analysis, knowledge of what the other players may do, and careful reading of the board to adjust the implied odds to each situation.

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